Friday, February 06, 2009

Being Geographically Imperative

Martin Sherman (see here for his previously posted picture series) quotes these lines from Shimon Peres' 1978 book כעת מחר ("Tomorrow Today") in his op-ed today:

"אם תקום מדינה פלשתינית נפרדת, היא תהיה חמושה מכף רגל ועד ראש. יהיו בה גם בסיסים לכוחות מחבלים הקיצוניים ביותר, ואף הם יהיו מצוידים בטילי כתף נגד מטוסים וטנקים, המסכנים לא רק עוברי אורח, אלא גם כל מטוס או מסוק שימריאו בשמי ישראל, כל כלי רכב שינוע בעורקי התנועה העיקריים בשפלת החוף... העדר מרחב טריטוריאלי מינימאלי מעמיד מדינה במצב של אי הרתעה מוחלטת.

דבר זה כשהוא לעצמו, יש בו פיתוי כפייתי כמעט לתקוף את ישראל מכל העברים... גם פירוז הגדה נראה כתרופה מפוקפקת. הבעיה העיקרית איננה הסכם על פירוז אלא על קיומו של הסכם שכזה. מספר ההסכמים שהפרו הערבים אינו נופל ממספר ההסכמים שקיימו".

and the translation:

"If a separate Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within it there will be also bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who too will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain..."

and what he doesn't include from this in his own article:

"the lack of minimal territorial room leaves Israel lacking deterrence. This situation acts as a come-on that obsessively encourages Israel to be attacked from all sides...the demilitarizing of the West Bank is a doubtful mendicant. The problem is not an agreement on a demilitarized zone but over the existence of the agreement itself. The number of agreements we've had with the Arabs is no less than the amount of agreements they have violated."

And now, to the substance of Martin's piece:-

With very few exceptions, it has become virtually unchallenged accepted wisdom that, eventually, Israel will have to withdraw from large portions - if not all - of the "West Bank". Invariably, it is the Demographic Imperative that is cited as the incontrovertible reason for such withdrawal being not only desirable, but unavoidable...the public should be aware that there is another equally grave - and more immediate – imperative that militates strongly against such withdrawal.

This is the Geographic Imperative...Given Israel's minuscule territorial dimensions, this is a consideration that assumes acutely critical importance...much of the territory designated for the envisioned Palestinian state, all of the following objectives will be within easy range of weapons being used today against Israel from territories previously relinquished to Palestinian rule (or rather to Palestinian misrule?):

• Major airfields (civilian and military) including the country’s only international airport
• Major sea ports and naval bases
• Vital infrastructure installations (power transmission, water systems, and communication networks)
• Main land transport routes (road and rail)
• Principal power plants
• The national parliament and most government ministries
• Crucial centers of civilian administration and military command
• 80% of the civilian population and of the commercial activity in the country.

...In light of recent hostilities, the risk of these dangers materializing can no longer be dismissed as unsubstantiated speculation or malicious scaremongering...

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